On Tuesday, Oleksiy Arestovich, an advisor to the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, predicted that the conflict in Ukraine would end by early May when Russia would have exhausted its resources to fight its neighbor.
Apart from many humanitarian passages out of besieged Ukrainian towns, talks between Kyiv and Moscow in which Arestovich was not directly engaged had yielded little results.
Arestovich stated the precise date would depend on how much money the Kremlin was ready to put into the campaign in a video distributed by multiple Ukrainian news outlets.
“I believe we should have a peace accord by the end of May, early May, if not sooner; we’ll see. I’m talking about the earliest conceivable dates.”
“Right now, we’re at a fork in the road: either a peace agreement will be made soon, within a week or two, with army withdrawal and everything, or we’ll be at a fork in the road.”
“Or there will be an effort to pull together some Syrians for about two and after we grind them down, a deal by mid-April or late April.”
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According to him, a “totally insane” scenario might entail Russia deploying new conscripts after a month of training.
Even if a peace agreement is reached, tiny tactical confrontations might continue for a year, according to Arestovich, despite Ukraine’s insistence on the total departure of Russian forces from its territory.
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin started what he dubbed a “special military operation” in Ukraine, the largest assault on a European state since World War II.
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